Martingale Risk Simulator
How the Martingale really ends — in numbers
The Martingale feels unbeatable — double after each loss and one win recovers everything. The catch is arithmetic: your bankroll and the table limit both cap how many times you can double, and the losing streak that breaks you is far more likely than it feels. This tool computes exactly how likely.
Doublings you can afford
8
Cost of the fatal streak
$255
Probability of ruin
60.8%
Chance of hitting the streak that wipes you out, over the rounds you set.
Your doubling ladder
| Loss # | Bet | Total lost so far |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1 | $1 |
| 2 | $2 | $3 |
| 3 | $4 | $7 |
| 4 | $8 | $15 |
| 5 | $16 | $31 |
| 6 | $32 | $63 |
| 7 | $64 | $127 |
| 8 | $128 | $255 |
| 9✕ | $256 | $511 |
The wall: the next double is beyond your bankroll or the table limit. That is where the streak stops being recoverable.
Probabilities assume independent rounds, which is exactly how casino games work. The ruin figure is a close approximation, slightly conservative. No betting progression changes the house edge — the Martingale only reshapes when you lose, never whether you lose. 18+.
How it works
-
Set your bankroll, base bet, the table maximum and how many rounds you plan to play.
-
Pick the win probability of your bet — presets for roulette, baccarat and Dice included.
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Read your probability of ruin, then run the simulation to watch it play out.
About this tool
Every Martingale player knows the theory: double after each loss, and the first win recovers everything plus one unit. What almost nobody computes is the wall. Your bankroll allows a finite number of doublings, the table limit allows another, and whichever is smaller decides how long a losing streak you can survive. Six losses in a row on an even-money bet is not exotic — it happens roughly once every 90 spins.
This simulator turns that into concrete numbers: the doublings you can afford, the exact cost of the streak that breaks you, and the probability of meeting it over your planned session. Then it runs the session so you can see it. No progression changes the house edge — the Martingale only trades many small wins for one catastrophic loss. 18+, play responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Does the Martingale actually work?
It works right up until it does not. You win small amounts frequently, then lose everything in one streak. The expected value per bet is unchanged by any progression — the house edge applies to every single spin regardless of what you bet before it.
How likely is a long losing streak, really?
Far more likely than intuition suggests. On an even-money roulette bet, six losses in a row happen roughly once every 90 spins. Over a 200-round session you are more likely than not to meet one — and that is exactly the streak most bankrolls cannot survive.
Could a bigger bankroll fix it?
It buys you more doublings, but the table maximum eventually stops you regardless, and each extra step costs exponentially more. Doubling your bankroll only adds one doubling to your progression — that is why casinos are perfectly happy to allow the Martingale.
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Open toolThis tool is for entertainment and education. It does not predict outcomes and cannot beat the house edge. 18+ — play responsibly.