Crash EV Simulator
Every cash-out target has the same expected value — see why
This tool doesn’t predict the next crash point — nothing can, that’s the entire point of provably fair. What it shows instead: whatever cash-out target you pick on Stake’s crash-style games (Crash, Limbo), your expected value per bet stays exactly the same. Set your numbers, then simulate 1,000 rounds to see what riding that constant edge actually looks like on a real bankroll.
Win probability
49.50%
Expected value per bet
-1.00%
🎲 Simulated crash points — same distribution as the real game, but pure simulation: these are NOT the next real results
📋 Your last crash points — paste 5–10 results from the game history and compare them to theory. Spoiler: whatever the streak, the next round’s odds don’t move.
Modeled on Stake’s documented 1% house edge for Crash/Limbo-style games: win probability = 0.99 ÷ target. The simulation uses ordinary randomness for illustration — it doesn’t replay real seeds. 18+ — no cash-out target beats a negative expected value.
How it works
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Set your starting bankroll, your bet size and a cash-out target multiplier.
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Read your win probability and expected value per bet for that target.
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Run 1,000 simulated rounds to see how a real bankroll swings under that constant edge.
About this tool
Crash and Limbo share the same underlying math on Stake: win probability for a cash-out target of M× is 0.99 ÷ M. Work the expected value through that formula for any target you like, and it always comes out to exactly the same number — the house edge is constant no matter what you aim for. Low targets win often for small profits; high targets rarely hit but pay big — both average out identically.
This tool computes that EV directly, then runs 1,000 simulated rounds so you can see what a constant negative edge actually looks like on a real bankroll — including the swings a single expected-value number can’t show. It’s the clearest proof we can offer that no cash-out strategy beats the math. 18+, play responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Is a low cash-out target “safer” than a high one?
It wins more often, but for smaller amounts each time — the expected value per bet is identical either way. “Safer” only changes the shape of your variance, not your long-run result.
Why does the simulation show different endings each time?
It uses fresh randomness every run, exactly like real bets do. The expected value is a long-run average, not a promise for any single session — that gap is the whole point of running the simulation.
Can any betting pattern beat this math?
No. Martingale, target-chasing, streak-following — none of it changes the per-bet expected value, because each round is independent and the house edge is baked into the odds themselves, not into any betting sequence.
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Open toolThis tool is for entertainment and education. It does not predict outcomes and cannot beat the house edge. 18+ — play responsibly.